About Consistency Stats

What is Minutes Consistency?

Minutes consistency measures how predictably a player's playing time varies game-to-game. A highly consistent player plays similar minutes each night, while an inconsistent player experiences large swings in playing time.

This matters for fantasy basketball, DFS, and understanding player roles. A consistent minutes base provides a reliable floor for production projections.

Methodology

We compute stability metrics over a rolling window of recent games (default: 15 games). Games where a player was inactive (DNP) are excluded from calculations.

Core Metrics

mCV (Modified Coefficient of Variation)
mCV = standard deviation / mean
Measures relative volatility. A mCV of 0.10 means the standard deviation is 10% of the mean minutes. Lower is more consistent.
MFD (Minutes Floor Drop)
MFD = median minutes - 20th percentile minutes
Measures how much minutes drop in "bad" games. A player with 30 median minutes and 22 at P20 has an MFD of 8. Lower is more consistent.
ZLF (Zero/Low Fraction)
ZLF = (games with minutes < 0.70 × median) / total games
Measures how often a player gets significantly reduced minutes. A ZLF of 0.20 means 20% of games had notably low minutes. Lower is more consistent.

Stability Score

The final score combines normalized versions of these metrics:

  1. Normalize each metric to a 0-1 scale (1 = best)
  2. Weight: 45% mCV, 30% MFD, 25% ZLF
  3. Scale to 0-100

Higher scores indicate more consistent minutes.

Normalization Details

  • n_mCV = clip((0.20 - mCV) / 0.20, 0, 1)
  • n_MFD = clip((8 - MFD) / 8, 0, 1)
  • n_ZLF = clip((0.30 - ZLF) / 0.30, 0, 1)

Data Source

Game log data is sourced from public NBA statistics and updated daily during the season. The rolling window always reflects the most recent games played.

Interpreting Scores

Score Range Interpretation
80-100 Excellent consistency. Core rotation player with stable role.
60-79 Good consistency. Minor variations but reliable baseline.
40-59 Average consistency. Noticeable game-to-game variation.
0-39 Volatile. Significant swings in playing time.

Limitations

  • Blowout games may skew minutes (though consistently, for starters)
  • In-game injuries or ejections can appear as inconsistency
  • Rest days appear as missing games, not low minutes
  • Trade or roster changes can affect recent window calculations